Where Is Kim Jong Un?
Kim Jong Un oversaw a series of artillery launches at the end of February and the beginning of March. Interestingly, photos circulated by DPRK state media showed KJU without a mask while other officials wore face coverings. During this time reports indicated that KPA personnel had died of COVID-19 like symptoms, while the DPRK itself denied any cases within its borders. It is likely that the DPRK wanted to project a confident posture in the face of a probable COVID-19 outbreak, and an unmasked KJU overseeing artillery drills reflected this confidence. But as rumors begin to surface about the DPRK leader, I wonder where is Kim Jong Un?
Kim Absent from Day of the Sun
On 15 April, the DPRK celebrated the Day of the Sun — the birthday of founder Kim Il Sung. And while the DPRK has previously released photographs of KJU paying his respects to his father and grandfather at Kumsusan, this time there were none.
Pyongyang watchers began assessing what Kim’s absence from the celebrations meant at the time, and CNN reported on 20 April that the White House was monitoring intelligence indicating that KJU was in poor health. Also, DailyNK published a single-source report indicating that KJU underwent heart surgery on 12 April and is recovering at Hyang San Villa at this time. It is unclear whether the CNN report refers to intelligence from the IC, or whether it refers to the single-source report from DailyNK.
Kim Jong Un’s Health
In 2014, KJU was not observed in public for over a month before photos of him walking with a cane were published. Yonhap reported that KJU was possibly suffering from “…gout along with hyperuricemia, hyperlipidemia, obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure.” This was attributed to his family history as well as his own lifestyle choices, including overeating, over-drinking, and chain-smoking. One can clearly see the effects of Kim’s poor lifestyle choices when comparing his weight gain from 2011 to present. Thus, the likelihood of KJU suffering a heart condition is high.
On 17 Dec 2011, Kim Jong Il died of a heart attack, which was announced by DPRK state media two days later. His death came after years of reports of bad health, including diabetes and heart disease. And while Kim Il Sung lived to be 82, he also died of a heart attack in 1994. Given KJU’s family history of heart disease it is highly probable that his own death will ultimately be due to a heart attack. Though, there is no indication that he will die, or has died, now.
Lack of Corroboration
The PRC and ROK governments have both indicated that there is nothing to report regarding the health of KJU. Further, the ROKG has indicated that no movements have been observed in the DPRK and I have not seen anything to suggest that the PRC is conducting troop movements in the border region. Given the destabilizing effect that the sudden death of Kim would have, the PRC would almost certainly mobilize troops in the region if they had knowledge of this event. Also, media outlets have gotten stories about high-ranking officials dying wrong in the past. So, while KJU suffering a heart attack is a logical scenario, the credibility of current reports can only be assessed as unlikely. It is more likely that he has undergone treatment for a health event but assumptions that he is fighting for his life are overblown.
Further, all of the media reports suggesting that KJU is in critical condition are only sourcing the CNN and DailyNK report. But as I mentioned previously, it is unclear whether the CNN report is sourcing intelligence produced from the IC, or if it is referencing the single-source report published by DailyNK. If CNN is basing its report on the latter, then it is using a usually credible source but with unverifiable information. In this case, there is no reason to believe that the current media flare up is indicative of the reality on the ground. Where is Kim Jong Un? He will likely show up smiling in state media photos.
Pingback: Kim Jong Un Death Disinformation - SAMJOKO